watchpr: only alert on mergeability lost after the baseline

Track mergeability across the whole run and decode it as a tri-state, so a PR already conflicted when watching starts is polled on instead of reported.

AGENTS.md

@@ -220,6 +220,12 @@ wrapped per stage (login / read denied / write denied) via `ErrVaultDenied`.
   half-finished (`rebase-merge`, `MERGE_HEAD`, `CHERRY_PICK_HEAD`, …). A directory
   whose backing repo is gone is deleted outright, but only ever inside the
   worktree root.
+- `watchpr` alerts on changes, not on conditions: the baseline snapshot is a real
+  read, so a PR that is already conflicted or already CI-failing when watching
+  starts is polled on rather than reported. Mergeability is the one rule needing
+  a run of observations (`prWatch`), because a conflict must both persist for two
+  polls and follow a mergeable one; Gitea's `mergeable` is tri-state (absent/null
+  = not yet computed) and unknown counts as neither answer.
 - CI "combined status" comes from `/commits/{sha}/status`; an empty head SHA
   yields an empty state without an API call.
 - Gitea backs every PR with an issue of the same number and serves comments from

README.md

@@ -85,7 +85,10 @@ Non-zero exit on any API error.
 Poll PRs and exit (reporting what changed) when a tracked PR **merges/closes**,
 gets a **new comment from someone other than the agent**, its **CI fails**
 (failure/error), or it **loses mergeability** (a conflict appears). Benign
-transitions — CI `pending`→`success`, the agent's own comments — are ignored.
+transitions — CI `pending`→`success`, the agent's own comments and pushes — are
+ignored, and so is any condition the PR was already in at the baseline: a PR
+that is already conflicted or already failing when watching starts keeps being
+watched.
 
 ```bash
 # Watch until something meaningful happens (default interval 60s)

cmd/watchpr/main.go

@@ -176,7 +176,7 @@ func report(key, reason string, st agent.PRState, jsonMode bool) {
 }
 
 func printState(st agent.PRState) {
-	fmt.Printf("%s state=%s merged=%t mergeable=%t ci=%s head=%s comments(non-agent)=%d\n",
+	fmt.Printf("%s state=%s merged=%t mergeable=%s ci=%s head=%s comments(non-agent)=%d\n",
 		st.Ref.String(), st.State, st.Merged, st.Mergeable, ciOrNone(st.CIStatus), shortSHA(st.HeadSHA), st.NonAgentComments)
 }
 

internal/agent/gitea.go

@@ -189,12 +189,12 @@ func (c *GiteaClient) Whoami() (User, error) {
 
 // PullRequest is the subset of Gitea's PR object we track.
 type PullRequest struct {
-	Number    int    `json:"number"`
-	State     string `json:"state"`
-	Title     string `json:"title"`
-	Merged    bool   `json:"merged"`
-	Mergeable bool   `json:"mergeable"`
-	HTMLURL   string `json:"html_url"`
+	Number    int          `json:"number"`
+	State     string       `json:"state"`
+	Title     string       `json:"title"`
+	Merged    bool         `json:"merged"`
+	Mergeable Mergeability `json:"mergeable"`
+	HTMLURL   string       `json:"html_url"`
 	Head      struct {
 		Sha   string `json:"sha"`
 		Ref   string `json:"ref"`

internal/agent/watch.go

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package agent
 import (
 	"errors"
 	"fmt"
+	"strings"
 	"time"
 )
 
@@ -16,17 +17,62 @@ func IsPRGone(err error) bool {
 	return errors.Is(err, errPRGone)
 }
 
+// Mergeability is Gitea's mergeable flag as a tri-state. The flag is null or
+// absent while Gitea recomputes the merge base, and an unknown value must not be
+// read as either answer.
+type Mergeability int
+
+const (
+	MergeUnknown Mergeability = iota
+	MergeYes
+	MergeNo
+)
+
+func (m Mergeability) String() string {
+	switch m {
+	case MergeYes:
+		return "true"
+	case MergeNo:
+		return "false"
+	}
+	return "unknown"
+}
+
+func (m Mergeability) MarshalJSON() ([]byte, error) {
+	switch m {
+	case MergeYes:
+		return []byte("true"), nil
+	case MergeNo:
+		return []byte("false"), nil
+	}
+	return []byte("null"), nil
+}
+
+func (m *Mergeability) UnmarshalJSON(b []byte) error {
+	switch strings.TrimSpace(string(b)) {
+	case "true":
+		*m = MergeYes
+	case "false":
+		*m = MergeNo
+	case "null":
+		*m = MergeUnknown
+	default:
+		return fmt.Errorf("mergeable: unexpected value %s", b)
+	}
+	return nil
+}
+
 // PRState is a point-in-time snapshot of the PR attributes watchpr tracks.
 type PRState struct {
-	Ref              PRRef  `json:"ref"`
-	State            string `json:"state"` // open / closed
-	Merged           bool   `json:"merged"`
-	HeadSHA          string `json:"head_sha"`
-	Mergeable        bool   `json:"mergeable"`
-	CIStatus         string `json:"ci_status"` // success / pending / failure / error / ""
-	NonAgentComments int    `json:"non_agent_comments"`
-	Title            string `json:"title"`
-	URL              string `json:"url"`
+	Ref              PRRef        `json:"ref"`
+	State            string       `json:"state"` // open / closed
+	Merged           bool         `json:"merged"`
+	HeadSHA          string       `json:"head_sha"`
+	Mergeable        Mergeability `json:"mergeable"`
+	CIStatus         string       `json:"ci_status"` // success / pending / failure / error / ""
+	NonAgentComments int          `json:"non_agent_comments"`
+	Title            string       `json:"title"`
+	URL              string       `json:"url"`
 }
 
 // FetchState builds a PRState for the given ref. agentLogin's comments are
@@ -95,6 +141,53 @@ func terminalState(st PRState) (bool, string) {
 	return false, ""
 }
 
+// conflictPolls is how many consecutive non-mergeable polls confirm a real
+// conflict. Gitea reports mergeable=false while it recomputes the merge base
+// after a push, so a single poll is debounced.
+const conflictPolls = 2
+
+// prWatch tracks one PR across polls. Mergeability needs more memory than the
+// previous snapshot: losing it only counts as a change if the PR was mergeable
+// at some point after watching began, since a conflict that predates the
+// baseline is the state the operator is already waiting on.
+type prWatch struct {
+	prev          PRState
+	everMergeable bool
+	conflicts     int
+}
+
+func newPRWatch(baseline PRState) *prWatch {
+	w := &prWatch{prev: baseline}
+	w.track(baseline)
+	return w
+}
+
+// track folds one snapshot's mergeability into the run of observations. Unknown
+// neither confirms a conflict nor clears one.
+func (w *prWatch) track(st PRState) {
+	switch st.Mergeable {
+	case MergeYes:
+		w.everMergeable = true
+		w.conflicts = 0
+	case MergeNo:
+		w.conflicts++
+	}
+}
+
+// observe folds in the newest snapshot and reports whether the watch should end.
+func (w *prWatch) observe(cur PRState) (bool, string) {
+	changed, reason := MeaningfulChange(w.prev, cur)
+	w.prev = cur
+	w.track(cur)
+	if changed {
+		return true, reason
+	}
+	if w.everMergeable && w.conflicts >= conflictPolls && cur.State == "open" {
+		return true, "PR lost mergeability (conflict)"
+	}
+	return false, ""
+}
+
 // MaxPollFailures is how many consecutive failed polls of the same PR are
 // tolerated before Watch gives up. The abort fires on the 20th failed tick, so
 // at watchpr's default 60s interval a watch rides out ~19 minutes of failure.
@@ -112,7 +205,7 @@ const MaxPollFailures = 20
 // onBaseline, if set, fires once after all baselines are captured and before the
 // first tick.
 func Watch(f StateFetcher, refs []PRRef, agentLogin string, ticks <-chan time.Time, onBaseline func(), onError func(PRRef, error)) (WatchResult, error) {
-	prev := make(map[string]PRState, len(refs))
+	watches := make(map[string]*prWatch, len(refs))
 	for _, ref := range refs {
 		st, err := f.FetchState(ref, agentLogin)
 		if err != nil {
@@ -121,7 +214,7 @@ func Watch(f StateFetcher, refs []PRRef, agentLogin string, ticks <-chan time.Ti
 		if terminal, reason := terminalState(st); terminal {
 			return WatchResult{Ref: ref, Reason: reason, State: st}, nil
 		}
-		prev[ref.String()] = st
+		watches[ref.String()] = newPRWatch(st)
 	}
 	if onBaseline != nil {
 		onBaseline()
@@ -145,10 +238,9 @@ func Watch(f StateFetcher, refs []PRRef, agentLogin string, ticks <-chan time.Ti
 				continue
 			}
 			fails[key] = 0
-			if changed, reason := MeaningfulChange(prev[key], cur); changed {
+			if changed, reason := watches[key].observe(cur); changed {
 				return WatchResult{Ref: ref, Reason: reason, State: cur}, nil
 			}
-			prev[key] = cur
 		}
 	}
 	return WatchResult{}, nil
@@ -172,15 +264,15 @@ func isFailedCI(state string) bool {
 
 // MeaningfulChange compares a previous state to the current one and reports
 // whether a change warrants alerting the operator, with a human-readable
-// reason. Benign transitions (CI pending→success, the agent's own comments, an
-// unchanged snapshot) return false.
+// reason. Benign transitions (CI pending→success, the agent's own comments, a
+// new head commit, an unchanged snapshot) return false. Mergeability is not
+// decided here: it takes a whole run of observations, which prWatch keeps.
 //
 // Alerting conditions:
 //   - the PR merged
 //   - the PR closed without merging
 //   - a new comment from someone other than the agent
 //   - CI transitioned into failure/error
-//   - the PR lost mergeability (a conflict appeared) for two consecutive polls
 func MeaningfulChange(prev, cur PRState) (bool, string) {
 	if !prev.Merged && cur.Merged {
 		return true, "PR merged"
@@ -195,12 +287,5 @@ func MeaningfulChange(prev, cur PRState) (bool, string) {
 	if isFailedCI(cur.CIStatus) && !isFailedCI(prev.CIStatus) {
 		return true, "CI failed (" + cur.CIStatus + ")"
 	}
-	// Gitea computes mergeability asynchronously, so a PR can briefly report
-	// mergeable=false right after a push. Require the loss to persist across two
-	// consecutive polls (both prev and cur false, still open) before treating it
-	// as a real conflict; a single false poll is debounced.
-	if !prev.Mergeable && !cur.Mergeable && cur.State == "open" {
-		return true, "PR lost mergeability (conflict)"
-	}
 	return false, ""
 }

internal/agent/watch_test.go

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 package agent
 
 import (
+	"encoding/json"
 	"errors"
 	"fmt"
 	"net/http"
@@ -17,7 +18,7 @@ func base() PRState {
 		State:            "open",
 		Merged:           false,
 		HeadSHA:          "abc123",
-		Mergeable:        true,
+		Mergeable:        MergeYes,
 		CIStatus:         "pending",
 		NonAgentComments: 0,
 	}
@@ -66,25 +67,11 @@ func TestMeaningfulChange(t *testing.T) {
 			wantChange: true,
 		},
 		{
-			// A single mergeable=false poll is debounced: Gitea often reports
-			// this transiently right after a push.
-			name:       "mergeable true to false for one poll is benign",
-			mutate:     func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = false },
-			wantChange: false,
-		},
-		{
-			// mergeable=false persisting into a second consecutive poll is a
-			// real conflict and alerts.
-			name:       "mergeable false persisting a second poll alerts",
-			mutatePrev: func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = false },
-			mutate:     func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = false },
-			wantChange: true,
-		},
-		{
-			// mergeable recovered (false then true) must not alert.
-			name:       "mergeable recovered false to true is benign",
-			mutatePrev: func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = false },
-			mutate:     func(s *PRState) {},
+			// Mergeability takes a run of observations, so no pair of snapshots
+			// decides it here; prWatch owns that rule.
+			name:       "mergeable false pair alone is not a pairwise change",
+			mutatePrev: func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = MergeNo },
+			mutate:     func(s *PRState) { s.Mergeable = MergeNo },
 			wantChange: false,
 		},
 		{
@@ -801,3 +788,169 @@ func TestWatchAnonymousKeepsPolling(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Errorf("fetch calls = %d, want 3 (baseline + two polls)", f.calls)
 	}
 }
+
+// drainableTicks returns a channel holding n ticks and already closed, so Watch
+// polls exactly n times and then returns instead of blocking.
+func drainableTicks(n int) <-chan time.Time {
+	ticks := make(chan time.Time, n)
+	for i := 0; i < n; i++ {
+		ticks <- time.Now()
+	}
+	close(ticks)
+	return ticks
+}
+
+// The production bug: a PR that was already conflicted (and already CI-failing)
+// when watching began must not be reported as having just changed. That state is
+// what the watcher is waiting to see resolved, so the loop keeps polling.
+func TestWatchIgnoresBaselineConflictAndFailure(t *testing.T) {
+	stuck := base()
+	stuck.Mergeable = MergeNo
+	stuck.CIStatus = "failure"
+	f := &fakeFetcher{states: []PRState{stuck}}
+
+	res, err := Watch(f, []PRRef{stuck.Ref}, "unkin-agent", drainableTicks(5), nil, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Watch: %v", err)
+	}
+	if res.Reason != "" {
+		t.Fatalf("Watch ended with %q; a conflict/failure predating the watch is not a change", res.Reason)
+	}
+	if f.calls != 6 {
+		t.Errorf("fetch calls = %d, want 6 (baseline + 5 polls)", f.calls)
+	}
+}
+
+// Mergeability lost after the baseline still alerts, on the second consecutive
+// conflicted poll.
+func TestWatchDetectsConflictAfterBaseline(t *testing.T) {
+	ok := base()
+	conflicted := base()
+	conflicted.Mergeable = MergeNo
+	f := &fakeFetcher{states: []PRState{ok, conflicted, conflicted}}
+
+	res, err := Watch(f, []PRRef{ok.Ref}, "unkin-agent", drainableTicks(3), nil, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Watch: %v", err)
+	}
+	if res.Reason != "PR lost mergeability (conflict)" {
+		t.Errorf("reason = %q, want the mergeability loss", res.Reason)
+	}
+	if f.calls != 3 {
+		t.Errorf("fetch calls = %d, want 3 (baseline + the two conflicted polls)", f.calls)
+	}
+}
+
+// CI that goes green→red during the watch alerts.
+func TestWatchDetectsCIFailureAfterBaseline(t *testing.T) {
+	ok := base()
+	ok.CIStatus = "pending"
+	green := base()
+	green.CIStatus = "success"
+	red := base()
+	red.CIStatus = "failure"
+	f := &fakeFetcher{states: []PRState{ok, green, red}}
+
+	res, err := Watch(f, []PRRef{ok.Ref}, "unkin-agent", drainableTicks(3), nil, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Watch: %v", err)
+	}
+	if res.Reason != "CI failed (failure)" {
+		t.Errorf("reason = %q, want the CI failure (pending→success must pass silently)", res.Reason)
+	}
+	if f.calls != 3 {
+		t.Errorf("fetch calls = %d, want 3 (the success poll must not end the watch)", f.calls)
+	}
+}
+
+// The agent's own pushes and comments must not end a watch; a comment from
+// anyone else must.
+func TestWatchIgnoresAgentActivity(t *testing.T) {
+	start := base()
+	pushed := base()
+	pushed.HeadSHA = "def456" // the agent pushed a fix; non-agent comments unchanged
+	commented := pushed
+	commented.NonAgentComments = 1
+	f := &fakeFetcher{states: []PRState{start, pushed, pushed, commented}}
+
+	res, err := Watch(f, []PRRef{start.Ref}, "unkin-agent", drainableTicks(3), nil, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Watch: %v", err)
+	}
+	if res.Reason != "new comment from a non-agent user" {
+		t.Errorf("reason = %q, want the non-agent comment", res.Reason)
+	}
+	if f.calls != 4 {
+		t.Errorf("fetch calls = %d, want 4 (the agent's push and comment must not end the watch)", f.calls)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestPRWatchMergeability(t *testing.T) {
+	snap := func(m Mergeability) PRState {
+		s := base()
+		s.Mergeable = m
+		return s
+	}
+	tests := []struct {
+		name     string
+		baseline Mergeability
+		polls    []Mergeability
+		wantPoll int // 1-based poll that ends the watch; 0 for none
+	}{
+		{"conflicted before the watch never alerts", MergeNo, []Mergeability{MergeNo, MergeNo, MergeNo}, 0},
+		{"loss after a mergeable baseline alerts on the second poll", MergeYes, []Mergeability{MergeNo, MergeNo}, 2},
+		{"a lone conflicted poll is debounced", MergeYes, []Mergeability{MergeNo, MergeYes, MergeNo}, 0},
+		{"unknown at baseline does not arm the rule", MergeUnknown, []Mergeability{MergeNo, MergeNo, MergeNo}, 0},
+		{"unknown at baseline then a real loss alerts", MergeUnknown, []Mergeability{MergeYes, MergeNo, MergeNo}, 3},
+		{"a baseline conflict resolved then lost again alerts", MergeNo, []Mergeability{MergeYes, MergeNo, MergeNo}, 3},
+		{"unknown between conflicted polls does not clear them", MergeYes, []Mergeability{MergeNo, MergeUnknown, MergeNo}, 3},
+		{"unknown alone is never a conflict", MergeYes, []Mergeability{MergeUnknown, MergeUnknown, MergeUnknown}, 0},
+	}
+	for _, tt := range tests {
+		t.Run(tt.name, func(t *testing.T) {
+			w := newPRWatch(snap(tt.baseline))
+			got := 0
+			for i, m := range tt.polls {
+				changed, reason := w.observe(snap(m))
+				if !changed {
+					continue
+				}
+				if reason != "PR lost mergeability (conflict)" {
+					t.Fatalf("poll %d ended the watch with %q, want a mergeability loss", i+1, reason)
+				}
+				got = i + 1
+				break
+			}
+			if got != tt.wantPoll {
+				t.Errorf("alerted on poll %d, want %d", got, tt.wantPoll)
+			}
+		})
+	}
+}
+
+// An absent or null mergeable flag means Gitea has not computed it yet, and must
+// decode as unknown rather than as a conflict.
+func TestMergeabilityDecoding(t *testing.T) {
+	tests := map[string]Mergeability{
+		`{"number":7}`:                   MergeUnknown,
+		`{"number":7,"mergeable":null}`:  MergeUnknown,
+		`{"number":7,"mergeable":true}`:  MergeYes,
+		`{"number":7,"mergeable":false}`: MergeNo,
+	}
+	for body, want := range tests {
+		var pr PullRequest
+		if err := json.Unmarshal([]byte(body), &pr); err != nil {
+			t.Fatalf("Unmarshal(%s): %v", body, err)
+		}
+		if pr.Mergeable != want {
+			t.Errorf("Unmarshal(%s) mergeable = %v, want %v", body, pr.Mergeable, want)
+		}
+	}
+	out, err := json.Marshal(PRState{Mergeable: MergeUnknown})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("Marshal: %v", err)
+	}
+	if !strings.Contains(string(out), `"mergeable":null`) {
+		t.Errorf("unknown mergeability encoded as %s, want null", out)
+	}
+}